Right Wing Can Implement Disengagement But Doesn’t Want To! Left Wing Wants To Implement The Withdrawal But Can’t! Right Winger Sharon Says He Wants To And Can! However, This Remains To Be Seen.
Time may be running out for Prime Minister Sharon. The opposition Labor party, headed by Shimon Peres has now decided to table a no-confidence over the government’s economic policy in light of statistics indicating that more Israelis are now living in poverty. So, will Sharon be able to survive in his uphill battle to muster a parliamentary majority to implement his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and four West Bank settlements. But this is only one of the Prime Minister’s headaches these days; Shinui leader Tommy Lapid threatens to bolt the coalition if Sharon makes a political payoff to an ultra- orthodox party for supporting the new draft budget.
Has the countdown begun for the fall of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s government and an early election? The prospect is looming more than ever. This is David Essing reporting?
Gridlock – that’s what Sharon is facing at every turn. The Prime Minister’s government coalition has disintegrated over his ‘Gaza+Four’ withdrawal. Sharon is now horse-trading with the ultra-orthodox United Torah Judaism Party in order to patch together a Knesset majority to pass the new state budget. But even this is easier said than done. If Sharon makes a political payoff to UTJ, of upwards of one hundred million, Tommy Lapid, the leader of secular coalition partner Shinui will bolt the government.
The opposition Labor party was considered to be in Sharon’s pocket, but no more. Party leader Shimon Peres now feels that Sharon has been stringing him along. With Labor joining Shinui in the coalition, Sharon would be home free. Only one problem, Sharon’s own Likud Party won’t accept Labor. So when Sharon tells Peres that he cannot swing the deal at this time, Peres hits the roof and tables a no-confidence motion in the government. The issue is not the withdrawal but the latest statistics which indicate that more Israelis than ever now live in poverty.As of today, Sharon could lose that no-confidence vote by more than 61 seats in the 120 member Knesset. But this would not mean the government would necessarily fall. The law now stipulates that 61 MKs must also agree on a candidate for Prime Minister to replace Sharon. It is hard to see the far right, which is categorically opposed to withdrawal, coming out in support of Peres.
On the other hand, Labor and the left wing Yachad party will support Sharon’s disengagement plan in the House. Confusing? No question and in the Labor party, Ehud Barak is about to launch his comeback in a speech to a party gathering next week. Barak, who will challenge Peres and other would-be party leaders, can be expected to take a more aggressive stance to Sharon, although he also favors the withdrawal scheme.Possible scenarios: If Labor and Yachad support Sharon only on disengagement and stymies him as a real fighting opposition on economic and social matters, is it only a matter of time before the PM decides on an early election?One Likud insider says Sharon is trying to buy time until March, when the cabinet is to take a final vote on actually implementing the evacuation. (Until now, the government has decided only to plan for it). United Torah Judaism says Sharon can form a new coalition by dumping Shinui and forming a new coalition with UTJ. But what about the Likud central committee vote banning Labor? UTJ believes the Likud will accept Labor if Shinui is out and the ultra-orthodox are in.
If Sharon is now over a barrel, so is his most reliable partner on disengagement, the Labor party. Shimon Peres has argued that Sharon cannot implement the evacuation without Labor. Now Peres is ‘holding Sharon’s feet to the fire’ warning that time is up and the no-confidence vote is making that point. Forcing Labor to swallow what Peres has called the government’ crappy and piggish capitalism’ without even joining the coalition is just too much. Until now Peres has been threatening Sharon with an ‘unloaded gun’ because the Disengagement was all important; there’s no way Labor would want to run in an early election with Sharon blaming them for not being able to carry out the evacuation. But if Sharon is headed for gridlock on running the country, all former considerations are off. Moreover, with Ehud Barak breathing down the neck of Peres something will have to give.Sharon does have one trump card up his sleeve; public opinion polls still show most Israeli voters want him to be Prime Minister. How he converts this popularity into being able to run the country is another matter.
