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IRAN FEELING THE PRESSURE

Menashe Amir: Although Cracks Are Appearing In Iranian Regime, They Have Not Halted Nuclear Weapons Drive

Only Sustained Diplomatic Pressure Will Dissuade Iran From Continuing Nuclear Weapons Program

A Package Deal With U.S. On Iraq & Iranian Nuclear Research Will Be Exploited To Develop The Bomb

President Ahmadinejad

Menashe Amir, an Israeli analyst on Iran, sees signs of mounting concern in Iran over President Ahmadinejad's defiance of the international community over the nuclear weapons issue. However, although some Iranians officials are worried over international sanctions and a possible U.S. military strike, so far this has not caused a shift in Tehran's plans to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. However, if the Iranian regime faces sustained pressure thats its survival is in danger there was a good chance it will back down.

'So far, there has been no shift in Iran's nuclear weapons drive, although there is mounting concern in Tehran to the international pressure - thats the assessment of Menashe Amir, a leading Israeli analyst.

Amir says some senior Iranian officials have criticized President Ahmadinejad's strident stance for endangering Iran in the international arena. The transfer of the Iranian file to the U.N. Security Council has increased concern over a military attack on Iran's nuclear installations. They are also worried about the new Bush Administration policy that Iran is the main threat to Americas internal security. At the same time, the Iranian outlook is that there will be no military strike on Iran and that a non- military solution will be found at the end of the day.

British-French Proposal: Amir believes the proposal will prevail and Russia and China will eventually accept this European and American approach (it calls for Iran to halt its nuclear research program within 14 days). Recently, Russian officials have also been criticizing Iran's nuclear program. If there is serious international pressure, Iran will concede and accept the American approach to halt its nuclear activities.

Iran-Iraq Package Deal: Menashe Amir warns about the Iranian offer to help the U.S. out in Iraq in return for easing off on Iran's nuclear research. He says the Iranians would exploit such a deal to acquire know- how for enriching uranium creating a very dangerous situation.The Israeli expert believes that if diplomatic pressure is sustained, there is a good chance for a diplomatic solution - the most important issue for the Iranian regime is survival and if they feel their existence is in danger they will back down and make concessions.

David Essing

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