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Dr. Kissinger: 'The Guerilla Wins If He Does Not Lose, The Conventional Army Loses If It Does Not Win'

PM Olmert Issues Disclaimer About Victory In Lebanon Advancing Realignment In West Bank

More Hezbollah rockets and more Israeli troops - that's what is characterizes the current stage of the war as both sides battle for victory before an internationally imposed cease-fire.

:: IsraCast Audio ::
Dr. Kissinger

In the words of Henry Kissinger: 'One of the cardinal maxims of guerrilla war - the guerrilla wins if he does not lose, the conventional army loses if it does not win'.

Dr. Kissinger's formula explains what is transpiring in the home stretch of the Israel-Hezbollah war. On Wednesday, the guerrillas launched a record 250 rockets into northern Israel. For its part, the IDF has sent six brigades of some 10,000 ground troops to push to the Litani River and demolish Hezbollah positions along the Israeli-Lebanese border. If the IDF succeeds in defanging Hezbollah, there may be a chance for a U.N. multi-national force to prevent a return of the guerrillas to the Israeli border. If not, what chance would foreign troops have? In effect, Israel is now unilaterally implementing the U.N.'s own Security Council Resolution 1559. It called for the disarming of Hezbollah and extending Lebanese sovereignty over the border area. The current IDF operation is not only vital to Israeli security, it also serves the Lebanese. Lebanon showed true grit in expelling the Syrians and taking back their country. The question now - will the Lebanese also be ready to confront Hezbollah which serves as Iran's proxy-army in southern Lebanon? Hezbollah, that is Iran, rules the roost in the Dahiah quarter of Lebanon's very capital of Beirut as well as the Baalbek region. This has and is costing the Lebanese dearly. Hezbollah represents the radical Shiite Muslims who make up forty percent of the country's population. But not all of those Shiites support Hezbollah. The sixty percent majority of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze will soon get their chance with the backing of the international community. But the Lebanese leadership and people will have to choose - do they want to get serious about retrieving their country? Or will they continue to acquiesce in Hezbollah turning it into a forward base for Iran's ambitions?

PM Olmert

Olmerts Blackout - It was probably Ehud Olmerts biggest gaffe since becoming prime minister. With national unity a paramount goal in Israel's bitter war with Hezbollah, Olmert suddenly alienated right wingers by talking about how victory in Lebanon would spur his withdrawal plan on the West Bank. Several hundred furious reserve soldiers, called up to fight in Lebanon, dashed off a letter of protest to the PM's office. Olmert has issued a disclaimer saying that the only issue on the table is winning the war and there is no connection to the Palestinians. Hopefully, his snafu will not harm the war effort. Right wing politicians deserve credit for a low key response-they have shown responsibility in time of war. Aside from a few cracks about Olmerts refusal to learn the lesson of a unilateral pullout from Lebanon and Gaza, they accept Olmerts disclaimer-for the time being. They could have highlighted the issue by calling for an urgent Knesset session. But even Olmerts closest supporters admit: 'The Prime Minister was speaking in English and apparently had a blackout'. Does that mean he didn't expect his comment to be translated into Hebrew?

But Olmerts plan for a Unilateral West Bank Disengagement, Reconvergence or Realignment may very well be a casualty of this war. It will likely return to the drawing board. The unilateral withdrawals from the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon have lead to hostile forces moving into the territorial vacuum to renew attacks on Israel. And from a more dangerous range. Without any responsible power ready to take charge, the terrorists take over. The maxim in physics ' Nature abhors a vacuum' also applies to terrorists and territory - this is not likely to be forgotten by the Israeli public when it comes to the West Bank.

David Essing

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