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Severe Sanctions Will Serve Iranian Democrats

Menashe Amir: 'Iranian Dissidents Will Welcome New Sanctions On Dictatorial Regime'

'More Than Sixty Per Cent Of Iranians Now Demand Regime Change'

'Despite German Chancellor Merkle's Public Criticism Of Iranian Regime, German Companies Do Booming Business With Iran'

Menashe Amir at IsraCast Studios

Iran continues to defy U.S. President Barack Obama's January deadline and continues to produce enriched uranium as part of its nuclear weapons project. This week, IDF Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin disclosed the Iranian nuclear clock is still ticking and every day Tehran is enriching a 'number of kilograms of low grade uranium'. At the latest meeting of the 'five plus one', China and Russia again blocked any serious attempt to impose new and harsher sanctions on the Iranian regime. Israeli analyst Menashe Amir, who was born and bred in Iran, assessed the current situation in an address to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs in Jerusalem. IsraCast's David Essing recommends Amir's analysis as an inside look into what is happening in the Iran file which is far from closed.

 Listen to Menash Amir on failure of international community to impose new sanctions, dissident Green Movement, what steps should be taken, why Ahmadenijad denies the Holocaust and the overview.

'I believe most Iranians hope the international community will impose new and harsh sanction on Iran'. That's the assessment of Menashe Amir, a leading Israeli expert who was born in Iran, speaks the language and maintains direct contact with Iranian dissidents to the dictatorial regime of President Ahmadenijad. The demonstrators who have been defying the regime in the streets have actually been discouraged by the failure to impose the sanctions by the 'five plus one' members, while the regime has been encouraged. In Amir's view, sixty to seventy per cent of Iranians now seek a major regime change and believe new sanctions would aid their campaign to topple Ahmadenijad and his regime of fanatical Islamists. However, Western countries do not really understand the nature of the Iranian regime that aspires to reestablishing a Shiite Islamic empire that will not only rule the Islamic world, but the entire world.

This explains why U.S. President Obama, European Union, China and Russia have failed to take effective action on blocking Iran's nuclear weapons project. In this context, Amir referred to sharp criticism of Iran by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while at the same time German companies do a booming business with the Iranian regime and even participate in Iran's nuclear program! Amir warned that Ahmadenijad and his Revolutionary Guards who run the country truly believe their are on divine emissaries of the Shiite Messiah, who is about to make his appearance. Therefore, Iran believes she needs nuclear weapons to achieve world domination. This was not only their religious belief but also their political strategy and foreign policy. The religious fanatics have no compunctions over sacrificing Iranian human lives in striving for this goal. For example, when the late Ayatollah Khomeini was criticized for causing the deaths of half a million Iranians in the eight year war he provoked with Saddam Hussein, the response was: 'What's the problem, in the meantime seven million Iranians have been born!'

The Iranian Missile Range

As for the Green Movement of dissidents, they can be expected to again take to the streets on February 11th, another public occasion, and chant ' death to the dictator!' as they again clash with the Revolutionary Guards and Beseej militia. What are the possible scenarios? There were two options: the regime will collapse due to the demonstrations, as did the Shah's thirty-one years ago. Amir does note the chances the chances very high. What is more probable is that the regime will clamp down even harder against the protesters. Ahmadenijad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have absolutely no intention of compromising on the nuclear enrichment issue - their proposals are simply designed to buy more time and keep the 'five-plus-one' on the defensive and prevent them from imposing new sanctions. So far it has been working and Amir asks why it has taken the Obama administration a year to reach this conclusion.

Although the international community keeps groping for a diplomatic solution there was no possibility that the Iranians could be talked into abandoning their nuclear weapons project. In Amir's view it was necessary to present Tehran with a military ultimatum - not only Iranian nuclear facilities but also bases of the revolutionary Guards would be bombed at a specific time and date unless they halted the nuclear weapons project. This should be combined with a broader set of serious sanctions similar to those that induced Libya to abort its nuclear program. In addition, further steps should be imposed simultaneously designed to topple the regime.

David Essing

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