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IsraCast Archive | July-August 2012

Israel's Landscape of Strategic Threats

IDF Intelligence Estimate For 2013: 'Middle East Will Be More Unstable & Islamist - Region Could Go Up In Flames'

Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon: 'Iranian Regime Has Reached Very Advanced Stage Of Nuclear Weapons Project. Before It's Too Late, Iranianss Must Be Faced With Dilemma Of Nuclear Weapons Or Regime's Survival'

IsraCast Assessment: With U.S. President Barack Obama Preoccupied With Getting Reelected, Israel's Appeal Is Likely To Fall On Deaf Ears In Washington'

 With Iran closing in on nuclear weapons and the 'Arab Spring' in high gear, the stark IDF intelligence estimate comes as no surprise. The outlook for 2013 is for a more unstable and Islamist Middle East and a higher security threat to Israel. IDF Intelligence Commander, Maj.Gen. Aviv Kochavi has briefed the IDF high command and will also present it to the full cabinet. The Yisrael Hayom newspaper has disclosed some details of the classified document that will serve as as Israel's security assessment for 2013.

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Iran's Smoking Guns?

Iran Again Stonewalls Nuclear Talks, Moves More Centrifuges Underground Into Fordo & Cleans Up Parchin Nuclear Weapons Research Site

U.S. State Department: 'The Window Of Opportunity Is Open But Rapidly Closing'

Prime Minister Netanyahu: 'Additional Proof That Iran Is Continuing Accelerated Progress Towards Achieving Nuclear Weapons'

 'In-your- face!' - that is Iran's contemptuous response to international demands to come clean on its nuclear weapons project. Within a space of fourty-eight hours, the Iranians moved several hundred more uranium centrifuges into its underground site at Fordo, torpedoed the lastest round of nuclear talks with the IAEA and also been caught cleaning-up its suspected nuclear weapons research at Parchin. Analyst David Essing is of the view these Iranian steps will push Israel closer to the tipping point on a decision to attack Iran.

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Israel's Iranian Dilemma

IsraCast Sums Up Various Israeli Positions On If & When Jewish State Should Go It Alone Against Iran Which Repeatedly Threatens To Annihilate The 'Zionist Cancer'.

 By chance or design, President Barack Obama has bowed out of the war of rhetoric with Israel on when, if at all, to bomb Iran. So with Obama on the hustings Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the U.S. Joints of Staff, has stepped in as Obama's point-man. Arriving on a trip to Afghanistan, Dempsey said he consulted bi-weekly with his Israeli counter-part Gen. Benny Gantz: 'We compare intelligence, we discuss regional implications and we've admitted that our clocks are turning at different rates. And Dempsey admitted candidly: 'They (the Israelis) are living with an existential concern that we are not living with'. Analyst David Essing says this is the crux of the controversy between Jerusalem and Washington over what to do about Iran's relentless drive for nuclear weapons, in spite of the latest international sanctions.

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Israel Replies to U.S Gen. Martin Dempsey

IDF. Gen. (res.) Yitzhak Ben Yisrael: 'The Americans Know We Can Clobber Iran's Nuclear Sites Like They Can - I Think U.S. Gen. Martin Dempsey Was Referring To What Happens After Israeli Strike On Iran'

'Nuclear Iran Would Not Be Capable Of Obliterating Israel Although One Iranian A-Bomb On Tel Aviv Could Kill 23,000 People'

Ambassador Michael Oren: 'One, Two, Three Years Are A Long Time In The Middle East... Diplomacy Hasn't Succeeded In Halting Iran's Nuclear Weapons Project'

 Israel's unofficial reply to U.S. Gen. Martin Dempsey was not long in coming - the IDF did have the capability to severely damage Iran's nuclear sites. But IDF Gen. (res.) Yitzak Ben Yisrael added: 'I think Gen. Dempsey was referring to continuous follow-up action to prevent Iran from again trying to produce nuclear weapons'. Ben Yisrael, who masterminded IDF weapons development for many years, is now a highly respected professor of strategic affairs. In two separate interviews, with Yediot Ahronot newspaper and Channel 10 TV, Gen. Ben Yisrael sized up the present situation.

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Morsi Inaugerates New Egypt

President Mohamed Morsi Inaugerates New Egypt By Launching Coup D'etat Against His Own Military

Israeli Leaders Mum Over Dramatic Purge But Obviously Concerned Over Future of Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty

IsraCast Assessment: Prime Minister Netanyahu Can Be Expected To Tell President Morsi That Any Amendment To Peace Treaty Can Only Be Implemented With Israel's Approval

The shock waves are still reverberating and will for some time to come in Egypt, Israel and the entire Middle East. In a stunning coup, Egypt's newly elected President Mohamed Morsi has purged the all-powerful top brass of the Egyptian Army that has ruled the country since 1952. After his election, most pundits jumped the gun - take TIME magazine's cover story of July 9: 'The Revolution That Wasn't, Why The Generals Remain Egypt's Real Rulers'. Analyst David Essing has this assessment from Jerusalem of what is being viewed as an historic development in the country along the Nile.

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Israel Can't Wait for Next U.S. President

Senior Israeli Official: 'We Can't Wake Up One Morning & Find Americans Have Done Nothing & Iran Has Nuclear Weapons'

'There is No Way Of Knowing What Barack Obama Will Do While Mitt Romney Won't Attack Iran In His First Year In Office'

'Ronald Reagan Did Not Want Pakistan To Get the A-Bomb & Bill Clinton Opposed North Korea, But Both Countries Now Have Nuclear Weapons'

 A senior Israeli official (apparently Defense Minister Ehud Barak) has indicated that he has given up on the U.S. halting Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In an in-depth interview with Haaretz, the official said Israel can no longer rely on a U.S. president, be it Obama or Romney, to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The official also said: 'If we wait until next spring, Iran will have enough enriched uranium to produce its first nuclear weapon'. The official was depicetd as a controversial decision-maker, at the heart of Israeli security issues for some fifty years and who has unique strategic experience. There was also the tell-tale grand piano in his home where the interview took place. (Barak plays classical music). Analyst David Essing said the official was sending a message not only to the U.S., but also to the Israeli people and possibly to the IDF top brass, some of whose commanders are reportedly opposed to going it alone against Iran.

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Israel's Final Countdown on Iran?

IDF Gen.(res.) Amos Yadlin: 'Israeli Leadership's Check- List For Attacking Iran Is Nearly Complete!'

'Political & Security Leaders Are Now Debating If U.S. President Barack Obama's Pledge To Halt Iran Is Credible'

IsraCast Assessment: Crucial Next 'Twelve Weeks' Warning To Iranians By Former Mossad Director Ephraim Halevi Apparently Refers To Fall Of Assad Regime in Syria & Optimal Weather Conditions for Israeli Air Strike

 Is Israel's final countdown for an air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons sites already underway? Ephraim Halevi, a former Mossad director has set the alarm bells ringing by telling the New York Times that if he were an Iranian he 'would be very fearful of the next twelve weeks'. However IsraCast Analyst David Essing noted that Gen.(res.) Amos Yadlin, the former commanding officer of IDF Intelligence, has now said that although Israel's 'checklist' for such an attack is just about complete, he believes that 2013 should be the year of decision.

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Israel, Turkey & Syria's Chemical Weapons

IDF Chief Of Staff Gantz: 'Bashar Assad Is Capable Of Using Chemical Weapons Against His Own People'

U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro: 'U.S. & Israel Are Coordinated On How To Deal With Syria's Chemical Weapons After Fall Of Assad Regime'

IsraCast Assessment: Turkey Must Also Be Worried About Kurdish PKK Fighters Getting Hands On Syria's Chemical Weapons. Speaking Privately Senior Israeli Officials Have T old IsraCast : 'THE DETERIORATING SITUATION STRESSES THE NEED FOR ISRAEL & TURKEY TO RESOLVE PRESENT DIFFERENCES AND RENEW PAST FRIENDSHIP'

The menace of President Bashar Assad's arsenal of chemical weapons overshadows the current chaos in Syria. In a briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense Committee, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz addressed the volatile situation that has pitted the Syrian Army and the rebels exchanging fire near the Israeli border on the Golan Heights. Analyst David Essing says there are differing accounts on whether the Chief of Staff warned that an Israeli strike against Syria's chemical weapons could start a regional flareup.

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Israel Will Bar Syria's Chemical Weapons From Hezbollah

Defense Minister Barak: 'When President Bashar Assad Falls, We'll Consider Acting To Prevent Hezbollah FRom Getting Their Hands On Syria's Chemical Weapons, Ground-To Ground-Missiles & Anti-Aircraft'

Israeli Lesson: 'While World Condemns Horrible Crimes In Syria, It Has Done Nothing To Stop It!'

IsraCast Assessment: Speaking Forcefully, Israel's Defense Minister Left Little Doubt Israel Will Act Militarily To Prevent Hezbollah From Getting Hands On Syria's Chemical Weapons

Israel will act militarily to prevent Hezbollah from transporting Syria's chemical weapons across the border to Lebanon - that was the message from Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Interviewed on July 20th, Barak told Channel 1 TV that Israel was 'very concerned' about terror groups exploiting the current chaos to take control of Syria's chemical weapons. The New York Times had reported that Israel has raised such a contingency with the U.S. On the Hezbollah bus bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Israelis and injured more than 30 others, Israel would find out 'exactly' who had sent the lone terrorist to Burgas Airport. Analyst David Essing is of the view that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will order the Mossad to track down and execute the perpetrators, as did Golda Meir after Palestinian terrorists massacred eleven Israeli athletes at the Much Olympics in 1972.

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Syria - Beginning of the End?

Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi: 'Israel Constantly Monitors Syria's Chemical Weapons Arsenal That Pose Threat To Israel'

'Al Qaeda & Islamic Jihad Militants Now Flocking To Syria Could Turn Golan Heights Into Hostile No-Man's Land Similar to Sinai'

IsraCast Assessment: IDF Intelligence Chief Paints Picture Of Rapidly Changing Landscape In Middle East That Poses New & Serious Challenges For Israel

 Does the deadly bomb blast in Damascus that killed three of President Bashar Assad's three top officials spell the beginning of the end? That is the question that is now being asked in Israel. Just twenty-four hours earlier, IDF Maj.Gen. Aviv Kochavi gave a closed-door briefing on the situation in Syria. Kochavi, the commander of the IDF Intelligence Branch stated: 'Syria is going the way of Iraq: the demise of the central government and the breakup of the state into various tribal regions'. In the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense Committee, Gen. Kochavi reviewed the latest developments on Israel's various fronts. Analyst David Essing is of the view that not only Iranian A-Bombs pose a future threat, Syria's massive chemical weapons may now be a 'clear and present danger!'

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MI6 Backs Barak on Nuclear Iran

MI6 Chief Sir John Sawer's Assessment That Iran 'Is Two Years Way From Becoming Nuclear Armed State' Substantiates Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Latest Estimate

MI6 Covert Actions Prevented Iran From Acquiring Nuclear Weapon in 2008

IsraCast Assessment: British Intelligence Service Apparently Assumes That Current Sanctions & Nuclear Negotiations Will Not Halt Iran's Nuclear Drive. Sawers Concurs That 'Israel & U.S. Would Face Huge Dangers If Iran Were To Become Nuclear Weapons State'

 MI6 is Britain's equivalent of Israel's Mossad and America's CIA, therefore its director Sir John Sawers should have a pretty clear picture of the Iranian nuclear crisis. According to Britain's Daily Telegraph, Sawers took the wraps off the current situation in a rare briefing to 100 British civil servants. Analyst David Essing finds points of agreement between the MI6 and that of Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak. (See IsraCast - 'Barak's Time Line on Iran').

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Barak's Time-Line On Iran

Defense Minister Barak: 'Moment Of Truth For Iran Is Not Matter Of Weeks, But Neither Is It Matter Of Years'

'Nuclear Negotiations & Current Sanctions Will Not Induce Iran To Halt Its Nuclear Weapons Program'

'Taking On A Nuclear Iran Will Be Far More Dangerous Than It Is Today' '

 'Forget about the Great Powers' nuclear talks and the current sanctions, they will not halt Iran's drive for the A-Bomb'. That was the message from Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak to a closed-door session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense Committee. Analyst David Essing quotes an Israeli official at the meeting who also referred to how long Israel will wait.

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IsraCast Archive | July-August 2012

IsraCast Archive