According to reports published in the British journal
"Financial Times" Ukraine has admitted that it exported
12 long range cruise missiles to Iran and six to China in 2001;
the missiles were reportedly sold without their nuclear warheads.
Ukraine's prosecutor-general told reporters that the Russian
businessmen suspected of masterminding the sale, was arrested
last July in Prague in response to a Ukrainian warrant. If the
new missiles become operational, Iran will be in striking distance
of all Middle East states as well as most countries in Europe.
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The
AS-15
Nuclear capable long range cruise missile
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Ukraine has recently admitted it exported 12 long-range Russian
built AS-15 cruise missiles to Iran. The AS-15 is a 6-meter
long, 1.7-ton missile with an estimated range of about 3000
km (apprx. 2000 miles). The first Soviet model was tested in
1978 and entered service in 1984. The AS-15 (NATO code named
Kent) is operated from two types of long-range strategic bombers:
the older Tu-95 (Bear) and the more modern supersonic Tu-160
(Blackjack). Much like the United States original Tomahawk cruise
missile used in the First Gulf War, the AS-15 is designed to
fly at a low altitude using internal guidance and the Terrain
Contour Matching System. It uses radar to match the on board
3-D database of the terrain the missile traverses. This system
"sees" the terrain it is flying over by use of its
radar, which it matches to the 3-D map stored in the missile's
memory. Although the new generation of Tomahawk cruise missiles,
used in the recent war in Iraq, were upgraded to a more precise
and cost effective GPS system, the older AS-15 is still considered
an advanced weapons system which can land just a few dozen meters
from its target, when launched from a distance of 3000 km.
The basic AS-15 Soviet design carried a 200-kiloton nuclear
warhead (about ten times the amount dropped on Nagasaki). After
the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine kept a number of Tu-160
aircraft, which were deployed along with their AS-15 cruise
missiles. Some of these planes with their missiles were returned
to Russia and the rest were dismantled in 2001 under the Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty (START I). According to Ukraine's prosecutor-general,
during the same year a Russian businessman named Oleg Orlov
was involved in selling 18 of Ukraine's AS-15 cruise missiles
to both China and Iran. According to this report the missiles
were sold without their nuclear warheads.
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The
New Iranian Missile Range
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Although highly lethal by trained personnel, the AS-15 is a
complex technology to operate. The Iranians currently do not
have large strategic bombers such as the Tu-95 or the Tu-160
that were designed to launch the AS-15. Even if they can somehow
rig one of their SU-24 tactical bombers to carry the long and
heavy cruise missile, it is doubtful they would be capable of
operating and updating the complex Terrain Contour Matching
System on their own. Replacing the system with a GPS guidance
system could solve this problem, although the U.S. has the capability
of locally neutralizing civilian G.P.S systems in times of conflict.
Another option the Iranians might try is converting one of their
large transport planes to carry the cruise missile. Even if
launched from Iranian territory, the AS-15 could still easily
hit any country in the Middle East including Israel as well
as American forces stationed in the region. This capability
isn't unique to the AS-15, because Iran's Shihab 3 ballistic
missile, which is now operational, has a range of some 1300
km. The AS-15 will add many European countries such as Italy,
Greece, and Germany to Iran's list of potential targets. Using
the SU-24 as a firing platform will extend the range to cover
all of Europe including France, Spain and the U.K.
Defending against cruise missiles is considered by military
experts to be extremely difficult. Although they fly at relatively
low speeds (subsonic), they tend to stay at extremely low altitudes
of only a few dozen meters above ground and are thus very hard
to detect and track by ground based radars. Using air based
radar systems might help but tracking a 6-meter low flying missile
is never easy. If given the proper warning, fighter planes can
engage incoming cruise missiles with similar tactics as used
by British pilots in World War II who destroyed dozens of German
V-I cruise missiles. But modern cruise missiles are obviously
much more sophisticated fly much lower and faster than their
V-I predecessors, thus leaving the bulk of the cruise missile
defense to ground based air defense systems. During the Second
Iraq War, the U.S. and Kuwaiti Patriot air defense units shot
down all 9 of the Iraqi short range ballistic missiles, but
failed to intercept even one of the five Iraqi Seersucker cruise
missiles launched against Kuwait. This failure is of particular
importance since it occurred during combat in the highly prepared
and highly defended arena of Kuwait. As a first strike surprise
weapon uploaded with biological or even a dirty nuclear device,
the Iranian AS-15 could potentially pose the perfect mass terror
weapon.
